First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics
When Did It Switch States?
- - + - + - + + + + + - + + - - + + + + - + - + + - - - + - - - + + - - + - - +
State changes from A to B halfway through
Adopted strategy payoff drops from 65% to 50%
How many observations before we know?
State switch more obvious if reliability high
+ - + + + + + + + + - - + + + + + + + + - + - + + - - - + - - - + + - - + - - +
Explains intermittent reward perseverance
Bayesian filtering vs. quitting on unlucky streak